Advisory Committee on Water Information
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Subcommittee on Hydrology -- Minutes - AUGUST 7, 2003 |
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SUMMARY MEETING OF ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON WATER INFORMATION'S AGENDA
SUMMARY PARTICIPATING: Tom Donaldson, National Weather Service NATURE OF MEETING Don Frevert called the meeting to order at 11:30 a.m. EDT. Welcome and Introductions The minutes of the October 17 subcommittee meeting were approved. There were 16 attendees including 8 people in person and 8 by conference call. Review and Approval of Agenda The meeting agenda was approved. Approval of Minutes from Previous Meeting The minutes of the spring subcommittee meeting have been updated and posted on the subcommittee's website as the titled "Spring 2003 Meeting." Election of Chair and Vice Chair Official actions of the subcommittee were taken electing Don Frevert to serve out the remainder of Mike Grimm's term as the chair and Sam Lin as the new vice chair. Both votes were unanimous. Action Items from Previous Meeting Action: Ratifying election of Don Frevert and Sam Lin as the chair and vice chair has been done in this meeting. Action: Don Woodward will formulate a set of revised wording for the terms of reference. The subcommittee will consider the revised wording at its next meeting. Action: George Leavesley will send out two complimentary copies of the proceedings from the 2002 conference to each member organization. Action: Gene Stallings and Don Frevert have arranged after this meeting an afternoon presentation by Kevin Stewart of the Urban Drainage and Flood Control District, Denver CO. Review of Committee Membership and Participation There are 15 active member organizations. Two other member organizations -: Agriculture Research Service (ARS) and Federal Highway Administration (FHA) - have not been represented at recent meetings. Action: Don Frevert will contact ARS and FHA representatives to confirm their desire to remain as a member organization of the subcommittee by their representatives or alternates attending the future meetings. (Note: Will Thomas indicated that the representative Joe Krolak with FHA is still a active member of the Hydrologic Analysis Frequency Work Group and he can be directly contacted) The FEMA representative to the subcommittee will be designated by the acting chief of Mike Grimm's former group. Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group Update The Hydrologic Analysis Frequency Work Group (HFAWG( met on July 24, 2003 at the office of Michael Baker, Jr. in Alexandria, VA. The meeting was conducted by Rocky Durrans, HFAWG Chairman. Eleven people attended in person and three people by conference call. Following is a brief summary of issues discussed and action items.
Action: All e-mail regarding the suggestion to develop a code of ethics related to flood frequency analysis will be directed to Martin Becker. Guidance for Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Task Group on References for Bulletin 17B Don Frevert stated that Rocky Durrans had sought guidance regarding the need to locate references for Bulletin 17B. Will Thomas said that he thought finding guidance on references for Bulletin 17B is a good idea to proceed and that the guidance being sought was an approval of this activity by the subcommittee. The subcommittee agreed that the effort to locate references was worthwhile and should be undertaken. Hydrologic Modeling Work Group Update The Hydrologic Modeling Work Group will be planning the next Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference for 2006. They will not hold a scoping workshop in advance of this conference - but rather the group will start out with topics which were successful sessions last year in Las Vegas and add to / modify that list based on suggestions from the subcommittee and other technical contacts. The Federal Interagency Sedimentation Conference (which runs at five year intervals) is also being planned for 2006. There may be an advantage to holding the two conferences at the same time and location. Potentially there could be savings in hotel costs as well as added efficiencies for the respective organizing committees. Action: Don Frevert will discuss this possibility with Paula Makar and Doug Glysson - both of whom are actively involved in planning the Sedimentation Conference. Don will report back to the group at the next meeting. Priorities and New Directions for Upcoming Year The consideration of priorities and new directions for upcoming year for the subcommittee was initiated by the previous chair Mike Grimm. As a result of continuing interest in drought on the part of several agencies, Tom Donaldson raised the possibility of the Subcommittee reviewing a white paper outlining issues involved with developing a collaborative hydrologic drought monitor similar to the current Meteorological Drought Monitor. Possible contributors would include Harry Lins of the U.S.Geological Survey, Phil Pasteris of the Natural Resources Conservation Service, Frank Richards of the National Weather Service, and Mark Svoboda of the National Drought Mitigation Center (University of Nebraska-Lincoln). The white paper would provide a description of a collaborative effort to develop a water resources emphasized, hydrologically oriented companion to the current Drought Monitor. Jon Werner indicated that water supply during drought is a major concern. A Subcommittee on Water Availability and Quality is reporting to the President's Office of Science, Technology and Policy. Action: Jon Werner will provide the subcommittee with additional information on the aforementioned subcommittee. Eric Janes said that water policy and water quality under CEQ need to be concerned. ACWI Meeting on September 9-10 Don Frevert will not be able to attend the ACWI meeting on September 9 due to a long standing and irreconcilable schedule conflict and Sam Lin will be his alternate for this meeting. Action: Frevert and Lin will brainstorm for the preparation of a presentation at the meeting. Frevert asked for ideas from the group for the presentation to make the presentation appropriately fit the meeting purpose. Will Thomas and Don Woodward will send Frevert and Lin some information to present and/or insights of the meeting from personal experience for reference. Announcements and Business Reports from Attendees NRCS: Jon Werner reported below:
BUREAU OF RECLAMATION: Don Frevert reported that the Bureau of Reclamation has undergone some administrative changes. Most notably, the Director of Policy, Management and Technical Services and the Director of Research and Natural Resources have been reassigned from Washington DC to Denver. Their respective responsibilities will not change significantly - just their duty stations. Reclamation and USGS are both involved in the Interior Department's Water 2025 initiative. Reclamation team leaders and their counterparts in USGS are working to get the interagency Watershed and River Systems Management Program included within the initiative starting in FY 2005. A preliminary request for 2005 funding was made by USGS on behalf of both agencies. The final decision on this will probably not be made for a few months. Reclamation and other interior agencies could have their internet access and outside e-mail communications terminated by a court order within the next few days. There is no definitive word at this point as to whether this will happen or not. If the agencies are taken off line, business will have to be conducted by phone, fax and e-mail from home computers. Potentially Reclamation and other interior agencies could use the argument that it is essential to public safety for them to be on line. NWS: Tom Donaldson reported on the NWS new initiative National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). NDFD furnishes the user with seamless, national forecast maps in digital format that provide more weather data, high resolution forecasts, visual displays of probability and are easy to access and manipulate in the NDFD bin and GIS formats. Some current products that would be of interest to the hydrologic community are rainfall amounts and probability of precipitation. Additional products that will be available in the near future are Flash Flood Guidance and Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimation. Brochures were provided for those in attendance in Denver, and it was suggested that for more comprehensive information everyone check the website http://weather.gov/ndfd. And to view graphic data the website is http://weather.gov/forecasts/graphical. Donaldson urged those who could to attend the NDFD workshop being held at the NWS headquarters office in Silver Spring on August 13th. Donaldson also provided brochures on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) that has been mentioned at several meetings in the past. Work on AHPS is progressing at selected sites across the country. It is anticipated that the funding for expanding AHPS will be supported in the next budget year. A map of the expansion will be provided in the future. The website for viewing more information on AHPS is http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/ahps. Donaldson also mentioned that the annual NWS Partners Workshop will be held in Silver Spring on 11 September this year. He urged those who could to attend because this is where management hears what the users want, and this would be an excellent opportunity to voice any suggestions or concerns. Donaldson provided the information below as supplement to his report: The Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center (HDSC) of NOAA's National Weather Service has published updated precipitation frequency estimates for the semiarid southwestern UnitedStates (Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, and Southeast California). The new estimates cover the full range for durations from 5 minutes to 60 days and for return periods from 2 to 1000 years. For the first time, confidence limits will be included The new estimates replace those from Technical Paper No. 49 "Two- toten-day precipitation for return periods of 2 to 100years in the contiguous United States" (Miller et al 1964), NOAA Atlas2 "Precipitation-Frequency Atlas of the Western United States " (Miller et al 1973), "Short Duration Rainfall Frequency Relations for California" (Frederick and Miller, 1979))and "Short Duration Rainfall Relations for the Western United States"((Arkell and Richards, 1986). The estimates are available through the new Precipitation Frequency Data Server as a link ("PF Data Server" on the left sidebar) on the HDSC's home page at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ohd/hdsc/ . Documentation of the estimates will be added in the near future. For states not included in the semiarid update, links are provided to current precipitation frequency (PF) documents on"line. Also, states in the Ohio River Basin (and surrounding states) are password protected for an up-coming peer-review. For further information please contact HDSC at HDSC.Questions@noaa.gov. NATIONAL HYDROLOGIC WARNING COUNCIL: Kevin Stewart reported that NHWC is holding their fifth biennial conference in Dallas October 21-24. They are also active in the Alert User's Group and two others to bring together federal partners and facilitate connections with end users. CORPS OF ENGINEERS: Dave Wingerd reported the following:
USGS: Robert Mason reported that:
Robert's report is appended to these minutes along with some follow-up comments from Martin Becker. During the meeting, Martin Becker commented at length regarding his concern about the USGS' current study of "problem peak flows (indirect measurements)" and its approach of deleting debris flows from the record. Becker feels that the censoring of peak flow data of record is going to increase the likelihood of devastation to people living in areas like Southern California that should be characterized as flood plains but are not because USGS has eliminated the data to make the proper determination. Martin expressed concern that the USGS approach is "too much like a science fair project" and not oriented enough towards the national flood insurance program which defines debris flows as floods. Also he feels that the fatal flaw in the USGS's approach is that it has been willing to decide that peak flow for a debris flow is not correct although it says it does not know how to compute the correct peak flow for debris flow. Martin said that if USGS does not know how to compute the peak correctly, how can it say the peak is incorrect? In his personal opinion, the indirect measurements study currently underway at the USGS is going to provoke a number of challenges under the National Data quality Act. Martin gave the USGS credit for asking him to be a peer reviewer of the indirect measurements study. BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT: Eric Janes reported had no new developments to report since the spring meeting. He expects to be assigned to Durango indefinitely. ASSOCIATION OF STATE FLOODPLAIN MANAGERS: Will Thomas reported that ASFPM has distributed the USGS proposal "Improving Flood Information Used for Flood Mapping in the United States" to selected members for comments. These comments will be provided to USGS for their information. DEFENDERS OF PROPERTY RIGHTS: Martin Becker had no new developments to report. FERC: Sam Lin reported for FERC. FERC''s Division of Dam Safety and Inspections provides oversight of licensed hydrologic safety of hydropower generation dams under its jurisdiction. The site-specific PMP studies have been conducted for two projects in the New England Region in the past two years. The purpose is that the revised PMP value resulted from the study is employed to determine the corresponding PMF and assess if spillway adequacy is an issue at the dam under study. Those projects are located in the stippled region of HMR 51. Topographic adjustments are specifically considered on the project watersheds including barrier depletion, storm elevation and orographic effects after major historical storms are maximized and transpositioned to the watersheds. For the approximate basin size of 500 sq. mi. of the Maine state project, the reductions of the PMP values are on the order of 29-35% for durations of 6-hr through 72-hr from the HMR 51 (approved). The analysis for the New York state project of 1,000 sq. mi. results in a reduction from the HMR 51's generalized PMP values on the order of 20 -25% (now under review). FERC's Division of Hydro Administration and Compliance (DHAC) ensures licensee compliance with license terms and conditions; conducts engineering investigations relating to license amendments and jurisdictional determinations; and prepares environmental assessment reports for license amendments. Those work categories require hydraulic and hydrologic analyses. Typical examples of projects recently done were such as a hydraulic model study of stream reach to determine the impact of a dam on flooding upstream; and analyses of reservoir drawdown scenarios using inflows, outflows and operating rules to determine the influence of a dam upstream. AMERICAN FORESTS: Don Woodward had no new developments to report. EPA: Dave Wells reported that EPA has been working with the USDA-ARS Southwest Research Center and EPA's Landscape Ecology Group in an effort to integrate their GIS modeling tools. This will combine USDA's AGWA assessment tools with EPA's BASINS system and provide a wider selection of erosion, runoff and surface water models for their users. FOREST SERVICE: Chris Knopp reported that the Forest Service is working on identifying water sources for national forests. Other agency priorities include Best Management Practice (BMP) monitoring and Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) policy changes and regulations. Other Business None. Upcoming Meeting The next meeting will be held on Thursday morning, October 2nd at 9:30 am in Washington, D. C. The most likely location will be the Main Interior Building, but this will need to be confirmed. Action: Don Frevert will provide details including the meeting location and draft agenda in advance of the meeting. Any member who would like to suggest an afternoon presentation or tour should contact Don as soon as possible. Adjournment The meeting was adjourned at 1:50 p.m. EDT. (A presentation by Kevin Stewart of the Urban Drainage and Flood Control District of Denver followed the meeting in Denver). ADDENDUM AND FOLLOW-UP DISCUSSION REGARDING USGS RE-EVALUATION OF PEAK FLOOD DISCHARGES:Robert Mason's e-mail report regarding USGS plans for the re-evaluation of peak flood discharges as provided on August 29: USGS is in the process of re-evaluating about 30 peak flood discharges. This evaluation is important because our ability to recognize and assess the sources of errors in indirect methods has improved. We are recognizing that some peak discharges that have been determined by indirect methods may be so uncertain that they may be no longer defensible, and need to be reviewed and if possible, revised. The 30 floods selected are floods from the national envelope curve in Crippen and Blue (WSP 1887, 1977), and from two papers published by Costa (Hydraulics and basin morphology of the largest flash floods in the conterminous United States, J. Hydrology, v. 93, 1987a, p. 313-338) and (A comparison of the largest rainfall-runoff floods in the United States with those of the People's Republic of China and the World, J. Hydrology, v. 96, 1987b, p. 101-115), plus the Day/Deer Creek site that has generated so much interest and concern in southern California. An administrative report will be prepared by the review teams for each peak evaluated; these will be fact-sheet length documents. At the completion of all reviews, the results from all the evaluated peaks will be compiled with conclusions and any recommendations likely published into a journal article. A second and important result of this effort should be a report that documents the lessons learned from evaluating these floods, what mistakes were made, how did it happen, and what can be done in the future to assure large floods are properly evaluated and quantified. This could become a bridge to revised procedures for constructing peak discharges estimates for very large floods. These could include closer monitoring of rating extensions, better tools to evaluate roughness, or better understanding of the differences between floods and debris flows. The review will not address issues related to use of floods affected by debris flows in flood-frequency analyses. Characterization and use of debris-affected floods will require additional consideration by the USGS and the SOH and can await results of the USGS review. Martin Becker's follow up dialogue of September 4, 2003 to Robert Mason's e-mail of August 29, 2003 is as follows: I do not believe Robert provided any information that differs from my conversations with the USGS during the past year regarding the Southern California/data problems issues. If anything, Robert"s comments reinforce the concerns that I presented in SOH meeting. Although Robert indicated (cover message to his August 29th email) that my comments were premature, the problem of potential devastation in Southern California because of censored data was an issue before the current report started. Now, it appears that the USGS has expended the majority of its allocated funds for a report that only results in a future journal article but does not provide any substantive improvement to the field of flood plain management and the potential saving of lives in Southern California.
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Hydrology 
