THEME: the central importance of climate and hydrology to NWS's future

THE EXTERNAL CONTEXT FOR NWS

• Science and technology "push"
  
  • Advances in sciences of meteorology, hydrology and climate
  • Technological advances - observing, computing and communications systems
  • Trends toward model integration and improved resolution (time and space)
• Reports - NRC Roadmap Study; Technology Infusion Report
• User Demand "Pull"
  
  • National need for better weather and flood warnings
  • User communities - especially water-identify great value with better forecasts

THE NWS RESPONSE
   Strategic planning based upon guiding principles

• The NWS Mission
• The NWS Vision
• The NWS Core Values

NWS MISSION

• Provide weather, water and climate forecasts and warnings
  • To America
    
  • To protect life and property
    
  • To enhance the national economy
    
• Provide national information database for
  • Government agencies
    
  • Private sector
    
  • Public
    
  • Global community

THE NWS FUTURE IN PERSPECTIVE

• Strategic directions
  
  • Deliver improved products and services - seamless suite of weather, water and climate forecasts
  • Capitalize on rapid scientific and technological innovation
  • Change the NWS organizational culture to strengthen teamwork for increased customer satisfaction

THE NWS FUTURE IN PERSPECTIVE

• Water is central
  
  • To America
    
  • To future NWS operations
    
  • A look ahead

WATER IN THE NWS FUTURE
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS)

• AHPS Products and Services
  
  • More accurate forecasts
    
  • Longer lead times (week to months)
    
  • Forecast uncertainty for risk-based decisions
  • Graphical presentation

AHPS DES MOINES RIVER DEMONSTRATION
         Since March, 1997

• Uses Short Term precipitation Forecasts
• Uses Climate Forecasts
  
• Provides Long-Range River Forecasts with Uncertainty
• Demonstrates Flood Forecast Areal Display

AHPS DEMONSTRATION PRODUCTS

• Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System
  • Short term streamflow forecasts [graphic]
  • Probability time series - stage [graphic]
  • National Operational Hydrologic remote Sensing Center [graphic

WATER IN THE NWS FUTURE
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS)

• AHPS Status
  • President's FY2000 Budget Request ($2.2M)
  • Initial implementation planned for Ohio River and Upper Midwest
  • AHPS independent Review Team Report
    
  • WEBSITE:
    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/ahps

THE NWS FUTURE
Serving America with Distinction

• The critical importance of the NWS partnership with the water resources community
  • This partnership has served America well in the past
  • Urgent national needs will intensify challenges in the decade ahead
  • NWS AHPS is a major step forward to strengthen the partnership